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Analysis

United States

Data commentaries

January 8, 2016 - U.S Employment (pdf)
January 6, 2016 - U.S. FOMC Meeting Minutes (pdf)
January 6, 2016 - U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (pdf)
January 6, 2016 - U.S. International Trade (pdf)
January 5, 2016 - U.S. Vehicle Sales (pdf)
January 4, 2016 - U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index (pdf)
December 23, 2015 - U.S. Personal Income and Spending (pdf)
December 22, 2015 - U.S. Existing Home Sales (pdf)
December 18, 2015 - U.S. Employment Monitor (pdf)
December 16, 2015 - U.S. FOMC Statement (pdf)
December 16, 2015 - U.S. Housing Starts and Permits (pdf)
December 15, 2015 - U.S. Consumer Price Index (pdf)
December 11, 2015 - U.S. Retail Sales (pdf)
December 2, 2015 - U.S. Federal Reserve Beige Book (pdf)
November 24, 2015 - U.S. Real GDP (pdf)
November 10, 2015 - U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (pdf)

Regular Publications

January 8, 2016 - U.S. Weekly Bottom Line (pdf)
December 18, 2015 - U.S. Quarterly State Forecast (pdf)
December 17, 2015 - Long-term Economic Forecast (pdf)
December 17, 2015 - Quarterly Economic Forecast (pdf)
November 16, 2015 - U.S. Dollars & Sense (pdf)

Special Reports/Observations

January 7, 2016 - Don't Let Zero Get In the Way of the Lower Bound (pdf)
January 5, 2016 - U.S. Long-Term Financial Asset Returns: An Economic Perspective (pdf)
December 2, 2015 - Strong Dollar Bites Into Exports, But Impact Varies By State (pdf)
November 10, 2015 - Trust, But Verify: Fed to Remain Cautious With Rate Hikes Even After the First (pdf)
October 8, 2015 - The Federal Reserve's Conundrum: Raising Rates Admist Conflicting Expectations (pdf)
August 26, 2015 - Domestic Tourism Will Support Florida Economy Despite International Weakness (pdf)
August 24, 2015 - Why Are We Not Seeing A Manufacturing Rebound In The Northeast? (pdf)
August 6, 2015 - A Checkered Landscape: A Global View Of The Risk Of Shadow Banking (pdf) (Appendix)
June 19, 2015 - Strong Dollar A Headwind To Businesses, But A Tailwind To Consumers (pdf)
June 15, 2015 - Auto Lending: Cause For Concern? (pdf)
April 28, 2015 - Rising Apartment Construction To Be Met With Continued Rental Demand (pdf)
April 20, 2015 - The Massachusetts Economy: Powered By Knowledge (pdf)
April 2, 2015 - Falling Oil & Gas Investment To Weigh Sharply On Near-Term U.S. Growth (pdf)
March 6, 2015 - U.S. Women Cut A Deeper Path In The Classroom And The Job Market (pdf)
February 25, 2015 - Conditions Are Ripe For American Consumers To Lead Economic Growth (pdf)
February 10, 2015 - The Jersey Comeback: Elusive So Far, But Not Out Of Reach (pdf)
January 30, 2015 - U.S. Homeownership Rate Still Declining But It May Not Be Bad News (pdf)
December 9, 2014 - U.S. State Fiscal Update (pdf)
December 2, 2014 - The Impact Of Volunteerism And Charitable Giving (pdf)
November 20, 2014 - Valuing The World Around Us: An Introduction To Natural Capital (pdf) (webcast)
October 27, 2014 - U.S. Inflation Limbo - How Low Can It Go? (pdf)
October 23, 2014 - The Lost Years: U.S. Business Investment Poised For Better Days (pdf)
October 8, 2014 - The Fed’s (Gra)Dual Normalization: Navigating Out Of Uncharted Waters (pdf)
September 24 , 2014 - Re-charging the U.S. Labor Market (pdf)
September 10 , 2014 - Divergent Views On Neutral Interest Rates (pdf)
August 14, 2014 - Potential To Improve: A Comparison Of Canadian And U.S. Trend Output Growth (pdf)
July 14, 2014 - Canada's Job Market No Longer Leading America's (pdf)
July 14, 2014 - The Federal Reserve's Exit Strategy And The Neutral Level Of Rates (pdf)
June 12, 2014 - US Student Debt A Near-Term Constraint On Homeownership (pdf)
May 20, 2014 - Shadow Banking In America: Back In The Spotlight (pdf)
May 15, 2014 - U.S. Housing Suffers a Set Back But Will Recover (pdf)
April 29, 2014 - Crunching U.S. State Tax Numbers (pdf)
April 4, 2014 - Lower Educated Workers Flock Into US Job Market (pdf)
April 2, 2014 - Economic Growth After Recovery: Quantifying The New Normal (pdf)
March 4, 2014 - U.S. Auto Sales Basking In Their Comeback Glow (pdf)
February 11, 2014 - State Finances Improve, But Long-Term Challenges Persist (pdf)
February 7, 2014 - Why The January Payroll Report Was Actually Pretty Good (pdf)
February 4, 2014 - Americans Face Tin-Plated Golden Years (pdf)
January 9, 2014 - U.S. Housing Recovery: Jobless No More (pdf)
December 18, 2013 - Comparing And Contrasting Canadian And American Consumers (pdf)
December 17, 2013 - Congress to Pass Bipartisan Budget Act of 2013 (pdf)
December 17, 2013 - The Greening of New York City (pdf)
December 11, 2013 - The Silent Majority: State And Local Governments Talk Back (pdf)
December 4, 2013 - Don’t Judge A Labor Market By Its Unemployment Rate (pdf)
November 1, 2013 - Green Bonds: Victory Bonds For The Environment (pdf) (Press Release)
October 24, 2013 - U.S. Regional Multifamily Housing Outlook (pdf)
October 10, 2013 - U.S. Deficits & Debt: Past, Present & Future (pdf)
October 1, 2013 - The Government Is Shut, But Will Pay Its Bills (pdf)
September 4, 2013 - State Fiscal Planning: Taming Tax Revenue Volatility (pdf)
August 29, 2013 - The Taper Cometh (pdf)
August 6, 2013 - Will The Fall In Refinancing Pose A Threat To The U.S. Recovery? (pdf)
July 18, 2013 - Higher Mortgage Rates Unlikely To Derail Housing Recovery (pdf)
June 26, 2013 - Up, Up, & Away: U.S. Home Price Growth Will Give Way To Rising Supply (pdf)
June 17, 2013 - Brazil: Enormous Economic Potential Needs Investment to Bear Fruit (pdf)
June 13, 2013 - The Federal Reserve's Exit Strategy: How Will It Unfold (pdf)
June 11, 2013 - U.S. Small Business Recovery Ready To Enter A New Phase (pdf)
June 6, 2013 - American Exports In A Multi-Speed World: Full-Steam Ahead Through Choppy Waters (pdf)
April 23, 2013 - Giving It The Old College Try, Assessing The Returns On U.S. Higher Education (pdf)
April 9, 2013 - U.S. Commercial Real Estate To Take Cue From Housing Recovery (pdf)
April 8, 2013 - Goosing U.S. Economic Growth Through Wealth Effects (pdf) (en français)
March 21, 2013 - School's Out (pdf)
March 1, 2013 - America's Debt Woes (pdf)
February 5, 2013 - Is The American Housing Rebound Sustainable? (pdf)
January 31, 2013 - Auto Finance A Bright Spot For U.S. Lenders (pdf)
January 29, 2013 - Assessing The Long Term Cost Of Youth Unemployment (pdf) (en français)
January 2, 2013 - U.S. Congress Passes Bill Avoiding Fiscal Cliff (pdf)
November 15, 2012 - The Shale Shift - Exploring The Impact Of Shale Gas On The U.S. Economy (pdf)
November 13, 2012 - An Economic Perspective On U.S. Long-Term Financial Asset Returns (pdf)
November 7, 2012 - Fiscal Impacts Under New Congress Are Not An Open And Shut Case (pdf)
October 30, 2012 - Initial Thoughts on Hurricane Sandy's Impact on the US Economy (pdf)
October 15, 2012 - Offshoring, Onshoring And The Rebirth Of American Manufacturing (pdf)
(Executive Summary) (Press Release)
September 10, 2012 - U.S. Consumer Credit - Building The Bridge Over Troubled Water (pdf)
September 5, 2012 - Treasuries To Avoid Japan-Like Experience (pdf)
September 4, 2012 - Days of Decision (pdf)
July 31, 2012 - Searching For A Detour Around The Fiscal Cliff (pdf)
July 6, 2012 - Crude Oil's Repeat Performance To Come To An End (pdf)
July 5, 2012 - To QE Or Not QE? (pdf)
June 19, 2012 - America's Housing Market: Recoveries Aren't Always As They Appear (pdf)
May 29, 2012 - Regional Multifamily Housing: South Atlantic To Outshine Northeast (pdf)
May 25, 2012 - Milking America's Cash Cow: The Case For Stronger Investment Growth (pdf)) (Press Release) (en français)
May 23, 2012 - What Would Greek Exit Mean For America? (pdf)
May 16, 2012 - Gas Prices Up, But Trucks Still On Top (pdf)
May 15, 2012 - Meeting America's Job Challenge Means Growing Small Business (pdf) (Press Release)
May 3, 2012 - Rising U.S. Energy Independence: What Does It Mean For Canada? (pdf) (en français)
April 10, 2012 - A New Norm For U.S. Auto Sales (pdf)
February 23, 2012 - U.S. Housing Recovery Will Not Drown In A Sea Of Distressed Sales (pdf) (en français)
February 21, 2012 - Scratching the Surface On U.S. Consumer Credit Offers Reason To Be Cautious (pdf) (en français)
February 13, 2012 - State Finances and The Budget Control Act: Going The Distance (pdf)
January 26, 2012 - The Worrisome Decline In The U.S. Participation Rate (pdf) (en français)
January 17, 2012 - U.S. Auto Sales Coming Back To Life...Slowly But Surely (pdf) (en français)
January 4, 2012 - What to Make of the Revisions to U.S. Existing Home Sales (pdf) (en français)
November 14, 2011 - Financial Literacy - The Investment of a Lifetime (pdf) (en français)
November 9, 2011 - Perspective: Gridlock In America (en français)
October 27, 2011 - The Bay State's Job Revival (pdf)
October 18, 2011 - U.S. Women Entrepreneurs and the Factors That Drive Their Businesses (pdf) (en français)
September 28, 2011 - Paying the Piper (pdf) (en français)
September 9, 2011 - President Obama's American Jobs Act (pdf)
September 7, 2011 - Can More Fiscal Stimulus Fix America's Labor Market Woes? (pdf)
September 6, 2011 - For Rent - Miami's Housing Market (pdf)
August 9, 2011 - Financial Reaction to U.S. Credit Downgrade (pdf)
August 8, 2011 - S&P Downgrade of U.S. Credit Rating Changes Nothing (pdf)
July 28, 2011 - Perspectives On The U.S. Debt Ceiling Debate (pdf)
July 18, 2011 - Will Inflation Stick? (pdf)
July 15, 2011 - Hoping Rationality And Leadership Win Out Over Politics (pdf) (en français)
July 12, 2011 - U.S. Job Machine Needs Faster Economic Growth (pdf)
July 11, 2011 - Jobs Dependent On Small And Medium Sized Firms
June 22, 2011 - Industrial Transformation: The Case Of North Carolina (pdf)
June 9, 2011 - East Coast Housing - If They Build It, Will They Come? (pdf)
May 18, 2011 - Small Businesses Will Reclaim the Driver's Seat Behind the Economic Engine (pdf)
April 20, 2011 - Setting The Stage For A U.S. Housing Recovery (pdf)
April 19, 2011 - Caught In The Middle: The Polarization Of Skills In The U.S. Labor Market (pdf)
March 25, 2011 - America's Manufacturing-Led Recovery (pdf)
March 1, 2011 - How The South Will Get Its Groove Back (pdf)
February 25, 2011 - Will Rising Oil Prices Derail The Global Economy? (pdf)
February 1, 2011 - Municipal Bonds: Not For The Faint Of Heart, But No Cause For Panic (pdf)
January 18, 2011 - Outside Of Mortgages, U.S. Credit Showing Broad Improvement (pdf)
January 4, 2011 - An Update On State Tax Revenues (pdf)
December 2, 2010 - Putting The U.S. Fiscal House In Order (pdf) (en français)
November 15, 2010 - High-Tech Sector Offers Ray Of Sunshine For Florida (pdf) (Press Release)
November 12, 2010 - Resolving U.S. Housing Problem Essential To Avoiding Japan Experience (pdf)
October 27, 2010 - The Nifty-Fifty No More: An Indepth Look at State Fiscal Finances (pdf) (Executive Summary)
October 5, 2010 - U.S. Unemployment In The Aftermath Of The Great Recession (pdf)
August 27, 2010 - U.S. Recovery Is Tracking Traditional Experience After Financial Crisis Induced Recessions (pdf)
July 29, 2010 - Will Europe's Troubles Wash Up On New England Shores? (pdf)
July 7, 2010 - U.S. Financial Regulatory Reform & The Dodd-Frank Bill (pdf)
May 28, 2010 - Small and Medium Sized Businesses Key to U.S. Economic Recovery (pdf)
May 18, 2010 - U.S. Consumer Prices To Dance Awfully Close To Deflation Danger Zone (pdf)
March 23, 2010 - U.S. Northeast Economy Becomes the Frontrunner (pdf)
March 22, 2010 - U.S. Corporate Profit Growth To Slow As Hiring Resumes (pdf)
March 10, 2010 - Back To Balance: What’s Next For The U.S. Housing Market? (pdf)
February 19, 2010 - Enter the Exit Strategy (pdf)
February 4, 2010 - U.S. Won't Have A Jobless Recovery (pdf)
December 16, 2009 - U.S. Consumer Credit & Household Deleveraging (pdf)
November 13, 2009 - U.S. Commercial Real Estate Is A Speed Bump, But Not A Road Block To Recovery (pdf)
November 12, 2009 - Possible Economic Impact of H1N1 (pdf)
November 6, 2009 - How Will The Great Recession And Its Recovery Compare To The Past? (pdf)
November 4, 2009 - Is The Global Economy Hard-Wired For A Lingering Fed? (pdf)
September 28, 2009 - Northeast Job Market is a Cut Above (pdf)
August 28, 2009 - The Great Recession: Lessons and Opportunities (pdf)
August 4, 2009 - Is There Evidence That Obama’s Loan Modification Program Is Working? (pdf)
July 31, 2009 - The Nascent Recovery (pdf)
July 30, 2009 - Anatomy of a U.S. Housing Rebound (pdf)
June 1, 2009 - U.S. Exports: Rise of the Machines Starring Emerging Markets (pdf)
May 7, 2009 - U.S. Recovery Has Legs To Stand On (pdf)
May 4, 2009 - Will Guarding Against Deflation Now Lead to an Inflation Problem in the Future? (pdf)
April 23, 2009 - Do State Foreclosure Laws Impact Mortgage Delinquency Rates? (pdf)
April 23, 2009 - U.S. Housing Market - Fishing for the Bottom (pdf) (Press Release)
March 24, 2009 - U.S. Credit Flows During the Fourth Quarter Show Stress on Households and Firms (pdf)
February 19, 2009 - (A Primer on Fiscal Stimulus (pdf))
December 5, 2008 - Bailout Rock - Is $4 Trillion a Magic Number? (pdf)
November 24, 2008 - Could Deflation Derail De Fed? (pdf)
November 19, 2008 - The Low Down on a Low Fed Funds Rate (pdf)
November 13, 2008 - Can Equities Recover? (pdf)
October 27, 2008 - Presidents, The Economy and Financial Markets (pdf)
October 17, 2008 - Origins and Policy Response to the Credit Crunch in North America (pdf)
September 26, 2008 - Will the U.S. Dollar go the way of the British Pound? (pdf)
September 9, 2008 - Nausea, Heartburn, Indigestion, Upset Stomach, Fannie, Freddie (pdf)
September 8, 2008 - Fixed Income: U.S. Bailout & Implications (pdf)
August 22, 2008 - Quiet Central Banks, Noisy Markets (pdf)
August 13, 2008 - A Look at U.S. Home Prices from 2002 to Now - The Correction Isn’t Over (pdf)
July 29, 2008 - A Regional Look At U.S. Labour Markets: Don’t Mess With Texas! (pdf)
July 16, 2008 - U.S. Households Look To Be Saving Their Stimulus Checks (pdf)
July 15, 2008 - Can All The King’s Men Put The U.S. Financial System Back Together Again? (pdf)
June 25, 2008 - If a Central Bank’s Forecast Falls Short of the Mark, Does It Make a Sound? (pdf)
May 22, 2008 - Predicting The U.S. Recovery: Some Leading Indicators Are Better Than Others (pdf)
April 25, 2008 - Is the Credit Crunch Pushing the U.S. Federal Reserve to its Limit? (pdf)
April 11, 2008 - Musings on the U.S. Recession (pdf)
March 17, 2008 - US: Fed Flailings Reveal Further Need For Cuts (pdf)
March 5, 2008 - U.S. Homeowners Not Getting Much of a Break on Mortgage Rates (pdf)
February 21, 2008 - What’s Going On With U.S. Inflation? (pdf)
February 5, 2008 - Economic Stimulus and the U.S. Outlook (pdf)
January 17, 2008 - The Five Finger Guide: Economic Data that Provide a Heads-up to a U.S. Recession (pdf)
December 12, 2007 - U.S. Consumer Outlook for the Holidays and 2008 (pdf)
November 29, 2007 - American Exports: The Quiet Revolution (pdf)
November 27, 2007 - Weaker U.S. Economic Outlook To Prompt Fed Cuts (pdf)
November 22, 2007 - Canada and the U.S.: The Odd Decouple (pdf)
November 6, 2007 - Oh CDOs, CDOs, Wherefore Art Thou CDOs? (pdf)
September 6, 2007 - The Illusion of Withering Wages (pdf)
August 20, 2007 - The Grey Anatomy of the Current Credit Crunch (pdf)
July 27, 2007 - Inflation Targeting By The Fed: Will It Ever Happen, And Would It Matter? (pdf)
April 30, 2007 - A Primer on the U.S. Sub-prime Market (pdf)
February 15, 2007 - Japanese GDP Flies, Making a Rate Hike Next Week More Likely (pdf)
January 23, 2007 - Resilient U.S. Consumers to Keep Fed on Hold Through 2007 (pdf)
November 17, 2006 - Fed Conundrum with Elevated Inflation to Persist (pdf)
November 14, 2006 - A Primer on Potential Output (pdf)
November 10, 2006 - Economic Impact of U.S. Elections on Canada (pdf)
November 8, 2006 - Tarnishing the Image of the Emerging Market Gilded Age (pdf)
October 27, 2006 - In The Shadow of the U.S. Slowdown: Local Context Key to Global Growth (pdf)
October 2, 2006 - The Decline and Fall of the U.S. Housing Market: Will the Broader Economy Follow? (pdf)
July 25, 2006 - Comparison of Monetary Policy in Canada and the United States: Weaker Fed Transparency the Biggest Difference (pdf)
May 18, 2006 - The U.S. Current Account Deficit: Nothing To Fear But Fear Itself (Executive Summary) (Full Report)
May 11, 2006 - She’s Come Undone: U.S. Housing Market Slowdown is Underway (pdf)
April 3, 2006 - Will U.S. Treasuries Pay a Price for Record Foreign Indebtedness? (pdf)
January 24, 2006 - Inventories Will Shape the Next U.S. Business Cycle (pdf)

2005
August 18, 2005 - U.S. Expansion on ‘Borrowed’ Time (pdf) (press release)
July 15, 2005- U.S. Equities Remain a Long-Term Favourite (pdf)
June 28, 2005 - Last Hurrah for U.S. Economy in 2005, Mid-Cycle Slowdown on Tap for 2006 (pdf)
May 2, 2005 - Is U.S. CPI Under-estimating Inflation? (pdf)
March 2, 2005 - Higher Loonie Fails to Drive Shoppers South (pdf)
September 13, 2004 - U.S. Housing Market: Time to Pay the Piper (pdf)
May 25, 2004 - Has the Fed Left Rates Too Low for Too Long? (pdf)

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