Analysis

Regular Publications

• December 17, 2015 - Quarterly Economic Forecast (pdf)

Special Reports/Observations

• August 14, 2015 - China’s Currency Depreciation Is Not A Race To The Bottom (pdf)
  
• August 11, 2015 - China’s Renminbi Will Not Threaten The Dollar’s Reserve Currency Status (pdf)
  
• July 23, 2015 - China’s Economy Is Entering A Slower, Riskier Phase (And Policy Options Are Running Thin) (pdf)
  
• July 13, 2015 - Greek Bailout Agreement (pdf)
  
• July 9, 2015 - China Takes Heavy-Hand To Settle Market (pdf)
  
• July 6, 2015 - What Next After The Greek Referendum? (pdf)
  
• June 29, 2015 - Greek Referendum and Capital Controls (pdf)
  
• May 8, 2015 - EZ Credit - ECB Policies Leading to Rise in Credit and Economic Growth (pdf)
  
• May 6, 2015 - The Greek Bailout Saga Continues (pdf)
  
• March 30, 2015 - Japan’s Long Slog In Stoking Wage And Price Growth (pdf)
  
• March 6, 2015 - European Central Bank Announcement (pdf)
  
• March 5, 2015 - A Challenging Year Ahead For China (pdf)
  
• February 25, 2015 - Extension Of Greece's Bailout Program (pdf)
  
• February 24, 2015 - The New Normal: Low Rates In Advanced Economies For The Long Run (pdf)
  
• February 17, 2015 - Eurogroup Finance Ministers Meeting (pdf)
  
• February 10, 2015 - Greece Cannot Be Allowed To Leave The Euro (pdf)
  
• January 22, 2015 - European Central Bank Announcement (pdf)
  
• January 9, 2015 - Assessing The Risks From Russia, Greece And The European Central Bank (pdf)
  
• November 5, 2014 - Latest Bank Of Japan Move Provides A Jolt To Markets (pdf)
  
• September 4, 2014 - European Central Bank Announcement (pdf)
  
• July 29, 2014 - Latin American Outlook: Seeing The Rain Forest Through The Trees (pdf)
  
• June 5, 2014 - European Central Bank Announcement (pdf)
  
• April 29, 2014 - Abenomics Scores Some Early Successes But Requires More Time (pdf)
  
• April 7, 2014 - China’s Rocky Road Towards Long-Term Prosperity (pdf)
  
• March 18, 2014 - The Trillion Dollar Pie (pdf)
  
• January 31, 2014 - Emerging Markets: Cut By The Same Scissors, But Not From The Same Cloth (pdf)
  
• January 22, 2014 - Euro Zone: Financial Calm Should Not Disguise Outstanding Macroeconomic Challenges (pdf)
  
• August 12, 2013 - Japan: Abenomics Notwithstanding, Demographic Trends Trump Fiscal Sustainability (pdf)
  
• June 28, 2013 - China Credit Squeeze:  Better To Prevent Than To Cure (pdf)
  
• June 17, 2013 - Brazil: Enormous Economic Potential Needs Investment to Bear Fruit (pdf)
  
• March 25, 2013 - Cyprus Travails Should Lead to Benign Impact on Rest of Europe (pdf)
  
• March 4, 2013 - Chinese Economy Will Pull Its Weight Amidst Subpar Global Economic Growth (pdf)
  
• February 26, 2013 - Italian Elections:  No Coalition Government Risks Dangerous Financial Strains (pdf)
  
• January 29, 2013 - Assessing The Long Term Cost Of Youth Unemployment (pdf) (en français)
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• November 27, 2012 - Euro Zone Finance Minister Reach Tentative Agreement With The IMF On Greek Bail-Out Modifications (pdf)
  
• September 6, 2012 - European Central Bank Announces Sovereign Bond Buying Program (pdf)
  
• September 5, 2012 - Treasuries To Avoid Japan-Like Experience (pdf)
  
• September 4, 2012 - Days of Decision (pdf) 
  
• August 21, 2012 - Europe's Lost Generation (pdf) 
  
• June 29, 2012 - European Union Summit Announcements (pdf) 
  
• June 18, 2012 - Greek Elections are out of the way, but significant hurdles lie ahead (pdf)
  
• June 11, 2012 - Spain Requests European Bailout For Its Banks (pdf)
  
• May 23, 2012 - Greek Debt Crisis: Answers To Frequently Asked Questions (pdf)
  
• May 7, 2012 - Assessing China's Quest For Economic Rebalancing (pdf)
  
• April 16, 2012 - China's FX Policy: One More Step Towards A Global Currency (pdf)
  
• March 9, 2012 - Greek Debt Swap:  A Significant Step Forward, But Far From The End Of The Crisis (pdf) (en français)
• February 29, 2012 - Deleveraging Begets Weak Economies Across Euro Zone Periphery (pdf)
  
• February 17, 2012 - Greek Sovereign Debt Crisis:  Sorting The Pieces Of The Bail-Out Puzzle (pdf)
  
• January 19, 2012 - China's Prospects In The Year Of The Dragon (pdf) (en français)
  
• January 13, 2012 - S&P's Downgrades Several Euro zone Sovereigns (pdf)
  
  
• December 9, 2011 - European Sovereign Debt Crisis: Building a Fiscal Compact (pdf) (en français)
  
• November 21, 2011 - Europe's Slow Moving Train Wreck Still Moving Down The Tracks (pdf) (en français)
  
• November 4, 2011 - Confidence Vote Removes Immediate Political Hurdle But Risks Remain (pdf)
  
• October 27, 2011 - European Sovereign Debt Plan: Navigating A Sea Of Missing Details (pdf)
  (en français)
• October 10, 2011 - Risk-Filled Environment Augurs For Continued Volatility (pdf) (en français)
  
• September 28, 2011 - Paying the Piper (pdf) (en français)
  
• August 8, 2011 - European Response to Fiscal Crisis Remains Inadequate (pdf)
  
• July 22, 2011 - European Sovereign Debt: Bailing-In Greece(pdf)
  
• July 19, 2011 - A Global Perspective On A Potential Chinese Banking Crisis (pdf)
  
• July 15, 2011 - Hoping Rationality And Leadership Win Out Over Politics (pdf)  (en français)
  
• June 29, 2011 - Slower Growth And Tighter Monetary Conditions Temper Global Inflation (pdf)

• April 21, 2011 - European Sovereign Debt: Entering The End-Game (pdf)

• March 28, 2011 - European Sovereign Debt: Still Without Signs of Resolution (pdf)
  
• March 14, 2011 - The Economic Impact Of Japan's Natural Disaster (pdf)

• February 25, 2011 - Will Rising Oil Prices Derail The Global Economy? (pdf)

• February 23, 2011 - European Sovereign Debt: Stress Testing Banks For "Sovereign Default" Is Key Next Step (pdf)
  
  
• December 3, 2010 - European Sovereign Debt: The Time Has Come For The ECB To Guard The Euro (pdf)
  
• November 25, 2010 - A Tale Of Two Countries, Two Economies And Two Budgets, 15 Years Apart (pdf)
  
• November 12, 2010 - G20 Statement Signals Global Imbalances Now A Top Priority (pdf)
  
• November 10, 2010 - Tackling Global Imbalances Is A Tall Order For G20 (pdf)
  
• October 1, 2010 - China: Foreign Exchange Rigidity, Asset Bubbles, And The Role Of Chinese Banks (pdf)
  
• July 23, 2010 - Early Verdict On European Stress Tests Is They Lack Stress (pdf)
  
• July 14, 2010 - Financial Regulation Reform: A Myriad Of Double-Edged Swords (pdf)
  
• June 28, 2010 - G-20 Summit Review (pdf)
  
• June 24, 2010 - A Preview on the G-20 Agenda (pdf)
  
• May 13, 2010 - European Sovereign Debt: Policy Actions Might Be Insufficient To Avert Debt Restructuring (pdf)
  
• May 10, 2010 - European Union Agrees to Emergency Financing Facility (pdf)
  
• April 29, 2010 - European Sovereign Debt: The Beginning Of A Long Journey Down A Slippery Road (pdf)
  
• April 28, 2010 - Framing the Greek Crisis for Canada (pdf)
  
• April 20, 2010 - The Economic Impact Of Iceland's Volcanic Eruption (pdf)
  
  
• December 2, 2009 - The Global Economy of Tomorrow: Better, Stronger, Faster (pdf)
  
• September 29, 2009 - The G-20 in Pittsburgh - Sherpas Bearing Gifts (pdf)
  
• July 10, 2009 - Growing Signs That A Rebound In Global Trade Flows May Be Near (pdf)
  
• June 29, 2009 - Could the Eurozone Economy See the ‘Mother of All Rebounds?’ (pdf)
  
• June 4, 2009 - Policy Prescriptions in the Age of Global Synchronicity (pdf)
  
• May 28, 2009 - Despite Supply Glut, OPEC Leaves Output Quotas As Is (pdf)
  
• April 6, 2009 - Real Work Remains to Repair the Global Economy (pdf)
  
• March 24, 2009 - Why China Wants to Dump the Dollar (pdf)
  
• February 20, 2009 - Global Synchronicity (pdf)
  
• January 21, 2009 - Emerging Asia: Nature vs. Nurture (pdf)
  
  
  
• December 17, 2008 - Despite Opec Restraint, Oil Price Downtrend to Remain Intact (pdf)
  
• November 10, 2008 - Chinese Fiscal Stimulus Can’t Buy Happiness (pdf)
  
• November 5, 2008 - The ECB, the BoE, and the Growing European Recession (pdf) 
  
• August 12, 2008 - The Chinese Economy: Domesticating a Dragon (pdf)
  
• June 25, 2008 - If a Central Bank’s Forecast Falls Short of the Mark, Does It Make a Sound? (pdf)
  
• January 24, 2008 - Global Economic Decoupling: Is The Cookie Jar Still Out Of Reach? (pdf)
  
  
  
• November 6, 2007 - Oh CDOs, CDOs, Wherefore Art Thou CDOs? (pdf)
  
• September 6, 2007 - The Illusion of Withering Wages (pdf)
  
• July 19, 2007 - Chinese Economy: The Song Remains the Same (pdf)
  
• April 19, 2007 - Slowing The Chinese Juggernaut (pdf)
  
• February 28, 2007 - Taking Stock in China – The Day After (pdf)
  
• February 15, 2007 - Japanese GDP Flies, Making a Rate Hike Next Week More Likely (pdf)
  
• November 8, 2006 - Tarnishing the Image of the Emerging Market Gilded Age (pdf)
  
  
  
• October 27, 2006 - In The Shadow of the U.S. Slowdown: Local Context Key to Global Growth (pdf)
  
• August 8, 2006 - The Economic Cost of Aids: A Clear Case for Action (pdf) (Press Release) (French Press Release)
  
• August 1, 2006 - Da Vinci’s Other Code: Increased Global Financial Volatility to Come (pdf)
  
  
  
• July 22, 2005 - China Revalues the Renminbi (pdf)
  
• April 18, 2005 - Pressure on China Could Delay Appreciation of Chinese Currency (pdf)
  
• February 9, 2005 - Threats to Global Financial Stability (pdf)
  
  
  
• May 20, 2004 - China: Short-Term Pain, Long-Term Gain (pdf)

• Key Economic Indicators* (opens new window)
• Canadian Commentaries (opens new window)
• U.S. Commentaries (opens new window)
• Weekly Bottom Line* (opens new window)
• Canadian Dollars & Sense* (opens new window)
• U.S. Dollars & Sense* (opens new window)
• Quarterly Economic Forecast - Canada* (opens new window)
• Quarterly Economic Forecast - U.S.* (opens new window)
• U.S. Quarterly State Forecast* (opens new window)
• Canadian Provincial Economic Forecast* (opens new window)
• Long-term Economic Forecast* (opens new window)
• Commodity Price Report* (opens new window)
• Federal & Provincial Budgets (opens new window)

• Six Employment Facts From A Not So Great Year* (opens new window)
• Don't Let Zero Get In the Way of the Lower Bound* (opens new window)
• U.S. Long-Term Financial Asset Returns: An Economic Perspective* (opens new window)
• Canadian Long-Term Financial Asset Returns: An Economic Perspective* (opens new window)
• As Oil Prices Scrape the Bottom of the Barrel, What Lies Ahead?* (opens new window)
• Strong Dollar Bites Into Exports, But Impact Varies By State* (opens new window)
• Canadian and U.S. Millennials: One of These Is Not Like the Other* (opens new window)
• Home Is Where the Wealth Is* (opens new window)
• Slowing Growth to Hit Federal Coffers* (opens new window)
• The Trans-Pacific Partnership: A New Generation Trade Deal* (opens new window)
• Trust, But Verify: Fed to Remain Cautious With Rate Hikes Even After the First* (opens new window)
• Who's the Most Vulnerable of Them All? Measuring Household Financial Vulnerability By Region* (opens new window)
• Canadian Agriculture Sector: Prices Down, But Loonie Providing Some Offset* (opens new window)
• Internal Trade in Canada: To Sustain Solid Gains, Barriers Must Fall* (opens new window)
• Canadian Small Businesses Resilient Even in Turbulent Waters* (opens new window)
• With a Liberal Win, Infrastructure Set to Take a Bigger Role* (opens new window)
• Business Investment Outlook: Trade-Based Sectors to Step Out of Resource Shadow* (opens new window)
• The Federal Reserve's Conundrum: Raising Rates Admist Conflicting Expectations* (opens new window)
• The Ties that Bind: Bank of Canada Won't Follow U.S. in Raising Rates* (opens new window)
• Failure To Launch: Canadian Exports And Structural Headwinds* (opens new window)
• Canadian Regional Housing Outlook: The Power of Low Interest Rates* (opens new window)
• Domestic Tourism Will Support Florida Economy Despite International Weakness* (opens new window)
• Why Are We Not Seeing A Manufacturing Rebound In The Northeast?* (opens new window)
• Canada’s Retail Sector Mostly Upbeat In First Half Of 2015* (opens new window)
• Taxes In Canada: A Mixed Bag Of Tax Changes Roles Out In The 2015 Budget Season* (opens new window)
• China’s Currency Depreciation Is Not A Race To The Bottom* (opens new window)
• China’s Renminbi Will Not Threaten The Dollar’s Reserve Currency Status* (opens new window)
• A Checkered Landscape: A Global View Of The Risk Of Shadow Banking* (opens new window)
• Canadian Economic Slump To Ease In Latter Half Of 2015* (opens new window)
• Assessing The Risk Of A Disorderly Home Price Correction In Toronto And Vancouver* (opens new window)
• China’s Economy Is Entering A Slower, Riskier Phase (And Policy Options Are Running Thin)* (opens new window)
• Rate Cut Not A Game Changer For Canada’s Housing Market* (opens new window)
• China Takes Heavy-Hand To Settle Market* (opens new window)
• What Next After The Greek Referendum?* (opens new window)
• Aboriginal Women Outperforming In Labour Markets* (opens new window)
• Greek Referendum and Capital Controls* (opens new window)
• Canadian Export Sector Poised to Step on the Gas* (opens new window)
• Prices Off Their Bottom, But World Still Awash In Oil* (opens new window)
• Strong Dollar A Headwind To Businesses, But A Tailwind To Consumers* (opens new window)
• Auto Lending: Cause For Concern?* (opens new window)
• The Long And Winding Road Towards Aboriginal Economic Prosperity* (opens new window)
• Selling Canada Short* (opens new window)
• Canada’s Non-Residential Construction Outlook* (opens new window)
• Swings In Oil And Gasoline Prices Cloud Retail* (opens new window)
• The Market Benefits of "Green" Condos in Toronto* (opens new window)
• EZ Credit - ECB Policies Leading to Rise in Credit and Economic Growth* (opens new window)
• Alberta Catches The Orange Wave* (opens new window)
• The Greek Bailout Saga Continues* (opens new window)
• Rising Apartment Construction To Be Met With Continued Rental Demand* (opens new window)
• The Massachusetts Economy: Powered By Knowledge* (opens new window)
• Working Towards An Improved Greater Toronto/Hamilton Area* (opens new window)
• The GTA Building Boom Comes To An End* (opens new window)
• From A Longer-Term Growth Perspective, West Is Still Best* (opens new window)
• Falling Oil & Gas Investment To Weigh Sharply On Near-Term U.S. Growth* (opens new window)
• Ontario P3s - Cost Does Not Equal Value* (opens new window)
• Japan’s Long Slog In Stoking Wage And Price Growth* (opens new window)
• Giving in Canada - Filling the Gaps* (opens new window)
• Precarious Employment In Canada: Does The Evidence Square With The Anecdotes?* (opens new window)
• Alberta Fiscal Outlook: Seizing The Day To Set The Province On A Stronger Long-Term Footing* (opens new window)
• Canadian Consumer Prices Riding On Loonie’s Wings* (opens new window)
• Technological Advancement In Autos Presents Great Opportunities For Canada* (opens new window)
• U.S. Women Cut A Deeper Path In The Classroom And The Job Market* (opens new window)
• A Challenging Year Ahead For China* (opens new window)
• Conditions Are Ripe For American Consumers To Lead Economic Growth* (opens new window)
• The New Normal: Low Rates In Advanced Economies For The Long Run* (opens new window)